QUESTION: I’ve been selling books on Amazon for the past year and a half, and am concerned about sales. Is there a downward trend now in online book sales ? In your book “The Home-Based Bookstore,” you predicted a “bumpy ride” for booksellers when e-books arrived on the market. Are we there yet?
About a year ago, I was selling more than 20 books per month. I’ve enlarged my inventory, but sales have dropped off to only a few each week. I keep my prices adjusted, and expected to be selling more by this time. Are sales for other sellers dropping off?
ANSWER: Here are some back-of-the-envelope opinions based on what I’ve been able to observe as a bookseller and as someone who has closely watched the trends regarding paper vs. Kindle sales for books I’ve written. I’m interested in hearing other opinions, too.
In general, I think the trend has been down for book sales since 2006, partly because of the economy — and partly, I’m guessing, because the average person is reading fewer books per year because they are doing other activities during their free time. (The booksellers we’re speaking of are mostly self-employed, Internet-only booksellers, for which there aren’t any reliable statistics. On the other hand, it’s pretty obvious that brick-and-mortar booksellers — chains and independents — have been consolidating, going bankrupt, or closing left and right. Look at the local Yellow Pages listings for bookshops from a few years ago, and a big portion of them will be closed.)
On top of that, I think there has been a pronounced effect from e-books, especially on fiction, during the past couple of years, and the past year especially. When I started selling books, I generally ignored fiction because it seemed it required so much more effort to find a fiction book that could be profitably resold. Yet I still stumbled onto enough of them to earn perhaps 20% of my sales from hardcover fiction books (popular stuff, not collectibles) that I was able to resell for a good $8 each gross profit before the paperback edition came out.
As a reseller of used books, it’s been many moons since a hardcover fiction book has hit my radar. A big part of that must be the shift toward people reading fiction on their Kindles. So far, it’s just a sliver of the market, but the trend is obvious. And my guess is that the curve will continue, and feed upon itself. The more that the e-reading trend continues, the fewer times publishers are going to even bother with a hardcover edition because, on average, it won’t be as good an investment for them. A good analogy in the entertainment business would be the trend toward Cable TV movies — “straight to video” instead of the film company bothering with the box office and distributing to movie theaters. For books, in the next few years, I think the trend will be “straight to paperback” for all but the A-list, popular authors, the ones you see in an airport bookstore and the front tables at Barnes & Noble. Mostly fiction.
And then if the trend toward e-reading continues on its current curve, trade paperback editions will probably become more infrequent, too. And perhaps someday, only bestsellers will ever be printed on paper.
So in that light, it’s a bleak situation, but the other side of the coin is that collectibles will be even more rare and, I would guess, keep rising in value like they’ve been doing the past 20 years, only faster. Nobody is ever going to “treasure” a Kindle book.
However, the other side of the book business, nonfiction books, are going to be around indefinitely, if you ask me. Most nonfiction readers, a healthy majority, from what I can guess, still want to hold the book. They want to be able to underline it, dogear it, and put it on their shelf so they can grab it again any time — no batteries or power cord required. Amazon’s Kindle hype notwithstanding, an e-book doesn’t offer that same utility.
Generally, I think sales rebounded nicely this past holiday season. So I’m very optimistic about online selling in general for the foreseeable future, because I think the economy is going to be on an upward curve for several years because we’ve been in the tank for a while. Unfortunately, I don’t think we will ever get back to that same kind of market we had about 10 years ago, where e-commerce and online book ordering had matured, yet e-book sales were virtually insignificant. That was a pretty good sweet spot for online booksellers.
Amazon recently announced that third-party sales were booming. But that doesn’t provide any proof that more sellers earning money at this, or that the pie (for books) is expanding as fast as the pool of sellers. And I would wager that, yes, the average bookseller’s sales are down for the past couple of years, unless they’ve managed to diversify into other kinds of products, or they’ve discovered a great new source of book inventory.
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A postscript from today’s Publishers Weekly:
Many booksellers reported that the past holiday season was the best in a number of years, but whatever gains surviving stores enjoyed appear to have been the result of the collapse of Borders since preliminary figures released this morning by the U.S. Census Bureau show a large decline in bookstore sales for December. According to the Census, December bookstore sales fell 15.6% in the month, to $1.67 billion, by far the largest decline in 2011.
via Bookstore Sales Plunged in December, Slipped for Year.
I’m a small-time bookseller. My number of sales have dipped slightly – but the value of each sale has dipped significantly! I foresee that in 5 years I probably won’t be selling books as the rewards won’t make it worth the effort. Gloom & doom.
Interesting ideas here. I had not really considered a decline in pleasure reading as a factor, but it makes good sense, in the mix with other things such as the continuing economic troubles. My own experience is that it’s probably leveling out and not declining any further as to online sales, but my prices have to be continually adjusted (usually lowered) and have never in the past been this low.
You’ve also confirmed my own opinion about non-fiction print books having a good chance of being in demand indefinitely. Most of my inventory is non-fiction and I still see the same spikes in sales at the beginning of each school semester.
Another sector of the book buying public which does have some effect in my opinion are the 55+ group, who may or may not buy Kindles but who are almost certain to want printed editions of many books as well. I don’t see this group going away anytime soon. Also, we know that this group controls a large part of the disposable income.
And one other thing, I do continue to have a reasonably steady market in overseas buyers. These are completely unpredictable (I think) as to what sort of books they buy…maybe if I kept track for a year I’d see some trends. They buy lots and lots of music CD’s as well.
Thanks for yet another very interesting article.
I think the pool of sellers has increased, too, in the last few years. Regardless of whether the pie is shrinking or not, it’s being divvied up among more and more sellers, especially on popular fiction and nonfiction (think bestsellers). JMHO, mike
I agree with the comment that there are more online sellers now, i.e. the pie is divided into more pieces. However, I think the current economic environment favors our business in the following ways:
1. More people are selling their own used books at garage sales in order to pick up a few dollars;
2. People who in the past would only have bought new books are now buying used in order to save money;
3. A used book seems like an affordable treat compared to other alternatives, especially if it can later be resold.
20 books a month isn’t a business, it’s a hobby. There is, of course, far more competition at the source these days–many thrifts (local and chain) are selling books & media directly themselves, cherry picking the valuable stuff before it ever hits the floor. So finding good stuff is harder than 5 years ago. There are also more sellers out there, due to the plethora of stupid “make easy money selling books online!!!!” ebooks and courses (those in the trenches know it is anything but easy, but the Internet Marketing types still manage to hustle the uneducated). The good news, of course, is the tightening up by the IRS has weeded out some sellers who were flying “under the radar” which should drop competition levels somewhat. But sourcing continues to remain the biggest challenge for a bookseller. If I were only selling 20 or fewer books a month, I’d wonder what was wrong with A) my inventory and/or B) my pricing before I worried about e-books. I’ve been selling books online for 7 years and frankly, sales have never been stronger–IF you know what to sell.
We had a banner holiday season. One of our best in 12 years. EXCEPT that before and after the holidays, we sort of plateued (spelling?). We are still consistently at around $500.00 a month profit. However, I list five hours a day, and many of my items are listed at $6.00 or less (not what I prefer). I own a brick and mortar, and I need the income to make bills on the losing enterprise (can’t sell my building for anywhere near what I have into it, and I mean for even 20 % less than I have into it). So I’ll be paddling for a few more years.
Still, the inhouse sales are improving. I am selling a LOT of fiction (maybe Borders going out is the reason?). And I am pretty happy with the number of e-reader customers returning because they’ve gone through the freebies, the low $ ones, and now want bestsellers at a reasonable cost (the Janet Evanovich mysteries for instance, my used paperbacks are less expensive, and can be shared more widely).
Thanks, Steve, for the post. Like to know what other sellers think.
Oh yes, I am now selling other stuff besides books, but books are still my bread and butter.
Debbie
Northeast US
Very interesting that point about non-fiction being more likely a durable product in paper editions. Definitely makes sense to me, as you want to have the information physically at hand.
I think perhaps if fiction books weren’t so bland-looking these days, more people would want them in print too. Publishers don’t give readers compelling reasons to want to own fiction. In the old days, you got a beautiful artist-rendered cover, AND the story. (I’m thinking of classic paperback fiction now.) Half the trade paperback fiction around these days seems to be illustrated with photographic covers showing women’s bare feet. Is that supposed to indicate that the stories are more truthful or something? You know, “closer to the earth” with no impediments like shoes?
You’re certainly right about how it’s not possible to “treasure” an ebook; it only exists when you turn it on, alas. You can only treasure it in your mind for the experience it gives you; hopefully, it’s a lasting one.
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